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Accurate aircraft trajectory predictions are necessary to compute exact traffic demand figures, which are crucial for an efficient and effective air traffic flow and capacity management. At present, the uncertainty of the take-off time is one of the major contributions to the loss of trajectory predictability. In the EUROCONTROL Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre, the predicted take-off time for each individual flight relies on the information received from the Enhanced Traffic Flow Management System. However, aircraft do not always take-off at the times reported by this system due to several factors, which effects and interactions are too complex to be expressed with hard-coded rules. Previous work proposed a machine learning model that, based on historical data, was able to predict the take-off time of individual flights from a set of input features that effectively captures some of these elements. The model demonstrated to reduce by 30% the take-off time prediction errors of the current system one hour before the time that flight is scheduled to depart from the parking position. This paper presents an extension of the model, which overcomes this look-ahead time constraint and allows to improve take-off time predictions as early as the initial flight plan is received. In addition, a subset of the original set of input features has been meticulously selected to facilitate the implementation of the solution in an operational air traffic flow and capacity management system, while minimising the loss of predictive power. Finally, the importance and interactions of the input features are thoroughly analysed with additive feature attribution methods. 相似文献
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This study aims to determine whether an understanding of chronic fundamental consumer motivations can help determine the mechanisms of willingness-to-pay for products online. To do so, it employs a simulated buying task on a fictional e-commerce site for a consumer product (branded either as a “new arrival” or a “classic”) to investigate the effects of two fundamental motivations (mate acquisition vs. self-protection) on willingness-to-pay for the product online. The primary focus of the paper to investigate the capacity of mate acquisition and self-protection motives to moderate the relationship between attitude toward the product and willingness-to-pay, as well as, the effects of the motives on willingness-to-pay are considered. Through regression and interaction effect analyses, it is shown that chronic fundamental motivation for mate acquisition is directly correlated with an increased willingness-to-pay for both product types, and it moderates the relationship between attitude toward a product and willingness-to-pay. Self-protection motivation increases willingness-to-pay for classic products but not new arrivals. By offering a rare look at chronic fundamental motivation in the consumer context and potentially being the first investigation of the moderating effects of fundamental motivations, the results mostly support the notion of predictable motivation induced behavioral tendencies. 相似文献
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Francis K. C. Hui Samuel Müller Alan H. Welsh 《Revue internationale de statistique》2021,89(1):186-206
There has been considerable and controversial research over the past two decades into how successfully random effects misspecification in mixed models (i.e. assuming normality for the random effects when the true distribution is non‐normal) can be diagnosed and what its impacts are on estimation and inference. However, much of this research has focused on fixed effects inference in generalised linear mixed models. In this article, motivated by the increasing number of applications of mixed models where interest is on the variance components, we study the effects of random effects misspecification on random effects inference in linear mixed models, for which there is considerably less literature. Our findings are surprising and contrary to general belief: for point estimation, maximum likelihood estimation of the variance components under misspecification is consistent, although in finite samples, both the bias and mean squared error can be substantial. For inference, we show through theory and simulation that under misspecification, standard likelihood ratio tests of truly non‐zero variance components can suffer from severely inflated type I errors, and confidence intervals for the variance components can exhibit considerable under coverage. Furthermore, neither of these problems vanish asymptotically with increasing the number of clusters or cluster size. These results have major implications for random effects inference, especially if the true random effects distribution is heavier tailed than the normal. Fortunately, simple graphical and goodness‐of‐fit measures of the random effects predictions appear to have reasonable power at detecting misspecification. We apply linear mixed models to a survey of more than 4 000 high school students within 100 schools and analyse how mathematics achievement scores vary with student attributes and across different schools. The application demonstrates the sensitivity of mixed model inference to the true but unknown random effects distribution. 相似文献
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To mitigate air traffic demand-capacity imbalances, large European airports implement strategic flight schedules, where flights are assigned arrival/departure slots several months prior to execution. We propose a generic assessment of such strategic schedules using predictions about arrival/departure flight delays and cancellations. We demonstrate our approach for strategic flight schedules in the period 2013–2018 at London Heathrow Airport. Together with the development of dedicated strategic flight schedule optimization models, our proposed approach supports an integrated strategic flight schedule assessment, where schedules are evaluated with respect to flight delays and cancellations. 相似文献